Sunday, March 12, 2006

1=2 but not 3

2. GM Breweries

Venus Remedies was a turnaround story (sort of) and hence commanded's patronage as the stock-pick. A quick-peek of GM Breweries reads a similar story.
a) LY sales were 104.33 crs; this year the company may close with 155 crs
b) LY profits were at 0.75 crs; this year the company should close at 9 crs
c) Again, an NCAV one would have zero comforts on (negative 22.84)
d) Surprisingly, this company doesn't subscribe to making many an announcements as in the case of VR.

I would again quantify this stock as a may-be-superhero stock and is more for aggressive investors and not conservative ones like myself. The price target given by for this stock is 120 rupees in the 3-5 month horizon.

The stock did reach a high of 89.35 rupees to a share and is currently at 71.2 rupees. The 52-wk low is 16.60 rupees/share. The charting of the scrip shows some inconsistent volume movement. The current trend shows that volumes are a bit on the decline .. but this can abviously change anytime.

3. Areva T&D India Ltd.

When I last researched this stock (Feb 25), the stock price was 468.00 rupees. I found it a bit expensive then. Today it is at 746.40 (Mar 10). The stock jumped 59.6% in 15 days.

Lets examine the stock stats -
Share capital - 39.89 crs
Loans - 1.58 crs
Investments - 9.65 crs
Net CA - 128.38 crs
FV - 10.00 rupees per share
Dividend - 1.75 rupees per share
LY Profit - 21.20 crs
Est profit for this FY - 50.00 crs
CMP - 743.00 rupees per share

On the basis of the above -
a) NCAV of 34.21 rupees / share
b) Dividend yeild of 0.24%
c) fwdP/E of 59.28

Any news value? Heavy ... the group is hiving off it's motor business, amalgamation etc. The company has some very good sales and profits to show for the last 3 quarters. The current volume trend suggests a little further movement up in the stock before a possible correction (afterall a P/E of 60 might be a bit difficult to sustain esp. when the industry is at around 34 levels)


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9:55 AM  

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