Friday, March 24, 2006

Ind Swift Lab

Ind Swift Labs moved UP by 15% today. I bought the stock yesterday.

It's not often that I write a statement like this. Fluke .... (no wait) ... big fluke !!!! ... not buying the stock, but the sudden jump

Share Capital - 20.90 crs
Loans - 145.35 crs
Investments - 3.14 crs
Net CA - 88.16 crs
FV - 10.00 rupees per share
Dividend - 1.50 rupees per share
CMP - 115.00 rupees (Mar-24)
LY Profit - 26.59 crs

Why I bought Ind Swift Labs?

1. I estimate a closing yr profit of 35 crs i.e. a P/E of 6.87.
2. Growing profits and sales for the last 5 years (YoY (04-05) growth in profits was 300% and sales was at 55%)
3. The sales growth numbers (qtr-on-qtr for 2004 and 2005) show a progressive story -
a) March - 45.22 crs v/s 83.22 crs (84% increase)
b) June - 44.00 crs v/s 79.97 crs (82% increase)
c) September - 45.48 crs v/s 80.28 crs (77% increase)
d) December - 66.75 crs v/s 82.36 crs (24% increase)
4. Profits have also moved in a positive direction, though not on similar constants - 251%, 18%, 21% and 418%.
5. Dividend yield is 1.30%. I expect a higher dividend payout of 2.5 rupees per share i.e. a dividend yield of 2.17%.
6. Excellent news value
7. The final blow was dealt by the charting of the scrip. Notice the fall in the share from 210 rupees, an year back to half that price today. The big avalanche started from Jan 18th (170 rupees) till it reached it's low of 97.60 on March-23rd (yesterday).

Please note that Grahamian numbers will not purport a buy for the stock because of the negative NCAV of 25.86 rupees, low cash in company and high debt. I find the management good, an enticing price even at 115 rupees (imagine, I bought it yesterday at 97 rupees) and excellent growth prospects.

8 Comments:

Blogger Amol said...

Shankar,

Wish you had written this blog yesterday :-)

Regards,
-Amol.

5:56 PM  
Blogger Shankar said...

Sincere apologies. Started watching "Lord of the Rings - The Twin Towers" instead. (hey, blame it on Frodo Baggins)

Amol, what do you say for this stock at 115 rupees? The stock's 52 wk high is 247 rupees and a low of 97 rupees.

Warm Regards
Shankar

6:07 PM  
Anonymous arun s. said...

Dear shankar,

Today got a advice from my broker to buy a chunk of "Gateway distriparks" as The announcement of acquisition to supplement the refrigerated cargo buisness is going to happen within a fortnight.He says the target is 300.Today i checked the markets and this stock has moved a sharp 4.3 percent.Can you give your ideas about this stock based on the fundamentals.

Arun s.

6:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shankar...any other last min stock picks? Do you think its a short term or long term pick? Sujit

7:01 PM  
Blogger Shankar said...

Hi Sujit,

Picked up Aftek Infosys, earlier in the wee .. but that has hardly moved. Am analysing if Titan is a good stock to play with .. this time in the Futures & Options mkt. Let me put it on a blog. If what I am thinking is true, we'll have a game on this Monday.

Rgds, Shanks

9:31 PM  
Blogger Shankar said...

Hi Arun,

Gateway Distriparks Ltd. shows some numbers i've not seen before.
1. Public holds just 5.42% of the shares while FIIs hold 39.57% (and that's because they cant cross the 40 percent limit)
2. Sales have grown by 90% over last yr and profits have grown by 200% over last yr.

Gateway Distripark has tremendous and rather high-profile news stories. So if your broker says there is an acquisition announcement, then I would give it a 75% of being true.

For a research study on the stock -
http://www.investsmartindia.com/IIL/Research/FlavourReportFiles/2005/10/20/GDL-Q2FY06ResultUpdate.pdf

New-found-punter (Prasanth) ... game on this ???

PS: The fwd P/E of this stock is 27.54.

9:53 PM  
Blogger Prasanth said...

Guys,

I was "unplugged" from the net for a few days - saw this post just now. "New Found Punter" ? No Way !!. It was a flirtation that did not last !!


Regards,
Prasanth

9:37 AM  
Blogger Shankar said...

Hope some of you bought the stock on Friday. It is again up 15% TODAY (monday). The stock has given me 30% in two trading days.

Rgds, Shankar

10:32 AM  

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